College football is back and the chatter is already drowning out common sense. The new 12 team playoff format changes everything and forces you to think beyond conference winners and hype reels. I went through SP+ predictive metrics, returning production, blue chip ratios, and real matchup juice and built a bracket that will piss off a lot of pundits and make a lot of sense when the season plays out. If you want the guts, the curveballs, and the picks nobody is talking about, this is your short, sharp primer.

Clemson looks like the safest bet to run the table. Ohio State has the roster depth and a rookie QB test week one that tells you everything you need to know about their ceiling. Georgia reloads like it is a cheat code. Notre Dame is built for consistency without the conference game boost. Texas has Arch Manning and all the upside in the world but the schedule and SEC gauntlet are real and will expose anyone who is overrated. These are the headline acts in my top six and why they will control the playoff picture this year.

There is also chaos lower down that creates massive betting and content angles. Penn State, Alabama, Oregon, LSU, Miami, Kansas State and a G5 candidate I am high on for the Mountain West create first round fireworks and upset potential. I lay out where teams are vulnerable, which matchups matter most for seeding, and which program is set up to take advantage of the new straight seeding rules without needing a conference title.

You want the full bracket, my quarterfinals, and the team I have hoisting the trophy at the end. Watch the full breakdown on my channel for the play by play, the SP+ numbers, and the bracket logic you can quote in your group chat. Click the video now to see the entire bracket, my winners, and the takes that will fuel the season.