In the most predictable move in NHL history, they finally released the schedule for round 1 last night around 1am Eastern Standard Time. Part of that decision was due to the dreadful Pacific Division being undecided until the conclusion of the game’s last night. Nevertheless, the first round is now official, and the matchups are as follows, and here are my 2026 NHL playoff predictions:
Buffalo (H) vs. Boston (A)
Tampa Bay (H) vs. Montreal (A)
Carolina (H) vs. Ottawa (A)
Pittsburgh (H) vs. Shithole in PA (A)
Colorado (H) vs. LA Kings (A)
Dallas (H) vs. Minnesota (A)
Vegas (H) vs. Utah (A)
McLoser (H) vs. Anaheim (A)
A comprehensive breakdown would simply be too many words for anyone to reasonably read through, but I will go through and pick my round 1 winner with a small explanation.
Buffalo vs. Boston:
Buffalo in 7
The Sabres are the story of the season. They fired their GM in the middle of winning streak, continued the streak, and finished second in the Eastern Conference. It will be the first playoff action in Buffalo in 14 years, and I expect their barn to be the most insane environment we have seen in quite some time. I think playoff experience could show some early warts for the Sabres but it’s not like this Boston team is completely loaded with playoff studs because they sold off last year. Ultimately, the offensive output the Sabres can bring to the table will overwhelm the Bruins and continue the feel-good season for the people of Buffalo. I don’t expect Buffalo to last much longer than the first round but it’s a good steppingstone for their franchise.
Tampa Bay vs. Montreal:
Montreal in 6
One of the few upsets I am going to predict. I think Tampa is the best team in the East, but we have seen Kucherov slump during his last few playoff series. The uncertainty around Hedman’s status is an important piece of the puzzle for Montreal’s chances. Though I will say if there’s any team that can put up with Tampa’s speed, it’s Montreal. Tampa will the experience, clutch factor, and roster depth over almost every team in the playoffs, but Montreal’s core got to experience playoff hockey last season, and we frequently see teams take a big step in their second go at it. If my prediction is to come true Jacob Dobes and Jacob Fowler to play at least similar to the level of Vasilevskiy, which might be too big of an ask.
Carolina vs. Ottawa
Ottawa in 7
By the standings this is an upset. However, I really feel like Ottawa is the better team. They have a better blueline, more star power, and better goaltending (when Ullmark is on). You put those pieces together and couple it with Carolina’s consistent playoff letdowns, and you get a recipe for success for Canada’s capital team. Most series come down to goaltending, unless one team is just extremely better, and I really feel like if Ottawa is going to get the Vezina level Ullmark. Ullmark has had a weird season that has been mired in controversy, mental health breaks, and poor play but in the playoffs everyone starts fresh. Ottawa can suffocate you defensively, they allow the least chances of anyone in the playoffs and with Carolina still lacking on offensive firepower it’s a great matchup for the Sens. Carolina is the more playoff tested team, so I expect this series to go the distance, but ultimately Ottawa will advance to the second round.
Pittsburgh vs. who cares
This series will be over in five games. Crosby will want to finish the series in Philadelphia though so it will go to game 6. Crosby will likely finish game 6 with some ridiculous stat line and the fans will leave the building chanting that he sucks, because they will never learn. Without my extreme bias, and hatred for Pittsburgh’s opponent, I still feel like Pittsburgh is the better team. They have a third liner who would have led the other team in goals, that’s how deep this Pittsburgh team is this season. The Penguins have the best players in the series. Crosby, Karlsson, Malkin, and Rust are the four best players in this series, and they all play on the same team. You add in a Chinakhov, Rakell, Letang, Mantha, and Kindel and it’s just hard to imagine this amount of talent will falter. The Penguins are the biggest surprise this season, with their opponent being the second biggest surprise but there’s nothing fluky about where they are at. Most teams that significantly outplay projections are backed by insane shooting percentages and hot goaltending, the Penguins received neither. The Penguins are just flat out good. The Flyers were propped up by both goaltending and shooting percentages. If Vladar doesn’t play out of this world the Penguins should clobber this team. When you add in the fact that Crosby is as motivated as ever, and it’s coming against the team he loves to hate, you just sense this team putting on a show.
Colorado vs. LA Kings
Colorado in 4
Not bold to project the regular seasons best team to win their first round series. However, typically the league’s best team fails to live up to their expectations. I don’t foresee that happening this season. I don’t know if I see Colorado going to the cup, but the Kings suck. LA is the 20th best team in the league and were bottom five in regulation wins this season. They are a bad hockey team, and they are going up against an absolute juggernaut. Colorado will have their way with this team and get rested for their most difficult matchup, whoever wins the 2vs3 matchup in their division.
Dallas vs. Minnesota
Dallas in 7
I don’t know how this series finishes before seven games. Two of the best teams in the league going head-to-head in the first round and seemingly equal. I think Dallas is the better team, but they are entering the playoffs relatively injured, so the question becomes can Minnesota take advantage of that? I really don’t know who is going to win this series which is why I am taking the home team in a potential game 7. I know some people hate the playoff format but seeing two teams of this caliber play whenever they are going to be at their healthiest makes for the best hockey viewing experience. I think it’s a shame that one of these teams has to go home early, but I am going to enjoy the hell out of this series. The Wild made the biggest trade of the season bringing in Quinn Hughes, and I believe him to be the biggest X-Factor. If Hughes is able to dictate play, I give Minny a significantly better chance at taking this series. As I said though, this is a close matchup that can really go either way.
Vegas vs. Utah
Vegas in 5
Listen, I love the Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. Great show. The people of Utah should follow all that drama instead of this series. I think Utah is a great up and coming team. They just aren’t ready to win in the playoffs. Just a few weeks ago I would have picked Utah to win this series though. Vegas found their mojo whenever they shockingly fired their coach with 8 games remaining and brought in John Tortorella. Torts has them rolling and now that they are entering the playoffs on a hot streak, I fully expect them to continue their good play. I hope Mitch Marner has a phenomenal series, simply for the great theatre that will come out of Toronto if Mitch lights it up. Toronto’s fans ran one of their teams’ best players out of the country and now they are just praying that someone below them doesn’t win the lottery so they can retain their first pick. Meanwhile, Mitch is on a different division winner and can completely rewrite the narrative that surrounded him in Toronto. Even if Mitch does become a playoff disaster, I still feel like Vegas is too stacked to lose this series.
Edmonton vs. Anaheim
Edmonton in 5
Unfortunately, McDavid will win another playoff series. The Ducks analysis is almost completely parallel with Utah’s. Too young to do damage. Anaheim does have a decent number of veterans mixed into their lineup, but their inability to play defense just isn’t going to work against Edmonton. McDavid averages 1.82 points per game against this team for a reason, they have no ability to slow him down. So unfortunately, we will all have to wait until round 2 to see McDavid fail, again.
