I am not doing a long warm up. We are going straight to the picks for the CFP Semifinals. I have Ole Miss over Miami. I have Indiana over Oregon.

I will tell you the one way each pick can break, so you can argue with me like an adult in the comments.

If you disagree, cool. Pick the exact sentence you think will age the worst and quote it in the comments.

Why this weekend feels different

This weekend is not about logos. It is about stress. Every snap feels like it can flip the whole game. That is why I am going heavier on the read than the math.

The teams left are not asking for permission. They are forcing you to play their game. And in the playoff, the team that wins the annoying downs usually wins the trophy. Third down. Red zone. Turnovers. Sack moments. The stuff you feel in your chest, not the stuff you flex on a graphic.

Now let’s get to it.

Miami vs Ole Miss and why I am betting against the fourth quarter

Miami can pressure Ole Miss. That is not a debate. Miami’s front is the kind that makes a quarterback speed up his clock and start seeing ghosts.

But here is the part I trust more than a highlight reel. Pressure is not the same as finishing.

Miami’s best games are built on chaos, and chaos has a stamina tax. You can win early reps and still lose the game if your rush turns from violence into tag late. And Ole Miss is the kind of opponent that makes that happen. They play fast. They force you to defend without perfect subs. They keep you stuck on the field long enough for your legs to start lying to you.

Then there is the quarterback problem. Ole Miss is not bringing you a polite target who stands there and accepts the sack. They are bringing you a QB who turns clean pressure into escape. Escape turns into scramble drills. Scramble drills turn into busted coverages. Busted coverages turn into the exact kind of back-breaking play that makes a great defensive night feel useless.

That is why I am on Ole Miss. Miami can hit their quarterback. I do not trust Miami to finish him for four quarters if the game turns into a long chase.

The one way Miami flips this and makes me eat it

Miami wins if they do not let the game breathe. They shorten it on offense, they control the ball, and they keep their pass rush fresh for the moments that matter.

The key is the fourth quarter. If Miami is still landing clean shots late, my whole argument wobbles. Not “active rush.” Not “almost got him.” Clean hits that end drives.

If you are on Miami, answer this straight. Are you betting on the pass rush holding up late, or are you betting on Miami controlling the game so the rush stays fresh.

Indiana vs Oregon and why I think the rematch gets louder

Indiana already proved it travels. They went to Eugene and won. So I am not treating this like a theory debate. It already happened in Oregon’s house.

Oregon’s counter is fair. Their defense can show up and erase people. They just did it to Texas Tech. Oregon is not soft. Oregon is not a fraud. Oregon can absolutely win this game.

But I am still taking Indiana because Indiana is built to win the downs that bury you.

Indiana plays leverage football. They stay on the field. They get off the field. They take the ball. They force you to earn every conversion like you are paying cash. They turn the game into a test of patience, and most teams fail that test because they want fireworks. Indiana wants control.

This is where Oregon’s issue shows up. Oregon can move the ball. The question is whether Oregon finishes. In this matchup, empty red-zone trips are poison. Field goals feel fine until you realize Indiana is stacking points and stacking possessions, and now you are down two scores without a single disaster play.

And the timing does not help Oregon. They are down a key running back, and that matters because the red zone is where you need your run game to be a weapon, not a suggestion.

So I am taking Indiana again. And I think the margin can be bigger because Indiana’s identity travels, and Oregon’s finishing problem does not get fixed just because the stakes got higher.

How Oregon wins even if you hate my pick

Oregon wins by turning trips into touchdowns. Period.

Oregon also wins by forcing Indiana into real third-and-long football. Not the comfortable, manageable stuff. The kind of third down where the playbook shrinks and the quarterback has to hold the ball a beat longer.

If Oregon can do those two things, Indiana cannot play the same calm control game. And if Indiana cannot play that game, Oregon’s ceiling starts to matter.

If I am wrong, here is the movie you will be watching

Miami wins if their pass rush stays violent late and they win turnover margin. The highlight will be Miami sprinting downhill in the fourth quarter and ending drives before Ole Miss can turn chaos into explosives.

Oregon wins if they finish in the red zone and steal a possession. The highlight will be Oregon making Indiana chase for the first time instead of letting Indiana play from control.

Which break script feels more real to you. Miami’s fourth quarter rush holding up, or Oregon suddenly becoming a clean red-zone team.

What I am watching next

If we get an Ole Miss vs Indiana final, it is a style clash that will make people mad. Ole Miss wants tempo and chaos. Indiana wants leverage downs and control. That is the kind of game where one scramble can swing a quarter, and one third-down stop can swing a half.

Now your turn. Drop your two winners. Drop one score you actually believe. Drop one bold call you will stand on.

Fork question to end it. Are you betting on Miami’s front to stay violent late, or are you betting on Indiana to keep strangling games the same way they have all season. Give me one real example of how it happens.

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