The man lost his starting job to Daniel Jones. Let that breathe for a second. Daniel Jones, who the Giants already cut loose, who had to rebuild his whole career from scratch, walked into Indianapolis and took the job from the fourth overall pick in 2024. Anthony Richardson then broke his orbital bone with a resistance band before warmups and spent the rest of 2025 sitting in a dark room letting his eye heal. Now the Colts gave him permission to seek a trade and somebody in an NFL front office is about to give up real draft capital for this. Do not be that somebody.

50.6% for His Career. His Career.

Not one bad stretch. Not one rough year. His entire NFL career, Anthony Richardson has completed 50.6% of his passes. That’s 177 completions on 350 attempts, 11 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, a 67.8 passer rating, and 10 fumbles in 15 starts. Those are the numbers of a quarterback who cannot consistently throw the football to the right team. In Week 8 of 2024 against the Texans, a division game the Colts needed, he went 10-for-32. He completed 31.3% of his passes, voluntarily took himself out in the third quarter because he “needed a breather,” and the Colts lost 23-20. He finished that season at 47.7%, dead last among every qualified starter in the entire NFL. Not bottom five. Last. One guy was worse at throwing the football than every other starting quarterback in the league in 2024, and the Colts are out here expecting mid-round picks for him.

The Malik Willis Comp Is the Most Damning Thing in This Entire Conversation

Green Bay traded a seventh-round pick to Tennessee for Malik Willis in August 2024. Willis was a third-round pick who walked into LaFleur’s system, started two games, went 2-0, and posted passer ratings of 120-plus in both. Over two seasons as Jordan Love’s backup in Green Bay, Willis completed nearly 80% of his passes for 972 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Zero. He’s about to get $20-30 million a year in free agency from a bidding war between desperate teams, and Green Bay got all of that for a seventh-round pick they basically found in a couch cushion.

Richardson was picked four overall. Three full rounds before Willis. He has never, in any season, completed 51% of his passes. He has never posted a passer rating above 68. He costs $5.4 million in 2026. The Colts want more than a seventh because of where they drafted him, which is the most backwards logic in professional sports. You don’t price an asset based on what you paid for it. You price it based on what it does. What Richardson does is complete fewer passes than almost every quarterback who has ever played in the NFL. The draft slot is not a stat.

The Only Teams Where This Makes Any Sense

The Packers are the obvious fit and only at a price that actually reflects reality. Willis walks in free agency, Green Bay needs a backup behind Jordan Love, and LaFleur just spent two years turning a guy who threw no touchdowns and three interceptions in Tennessee into a $25 million free agent. If any coaching staff on earth can make Richardson functional in a limited role, it’s that one. Richardson’s legs are real even when his arm isn’t, and an RPO-heavy system that doesn’t ask him to win shootouts from the pocket is the only environment where he makes any sense. The Packers traded away two first-rounders for Micah Parsons last August, so their draft capital at the top end is already depleted. A seventh-round pick is the right number. Maybe a sixth if Gutekunst is feeling bold. Anything with a five or higher in front of it and Green Bay just repeated the Colts’ mistake with better intentions.

The Rams are the second real answer, and only because Sean McVay makes backup quarterbacks look functional as a signature move. Matthew Stafford isn’t playing forever. Richardson behind Stafford for a year, simplified reads, lean on his legs, see if something clicks. That works as a late Day 3 gamble. It stops working the second you’re giving up a fourth-round pick, because now you’ve committed real capital to the idea of Anthony Richardson instead of the actual quarterback who has suited up for 17 NFL games.

The 49ers keep coming up and it’s the one that should die the fastest. Shanahan’s offense runs on timing, precision, and pre-snap processing. That’s not Richardson’s problem area on paper, except it absolutely is, because his problem IS processing. He stares at one receiver, holds the ball, and takes sacks or throws it to the wrong team at a historic rate. The 49er fit is a vibe for people who saw him run a 4.43 at the combine and never watched the film.

The “He’s 23 With a Cannon” Argument

It’s real. The physical tools are legitimately elite. His Relative Athletic Score coming out of Florida was one of the highest ever recorded at the position. There’s a version of Anthony Richardson who clicks in the right system with the right coaching and becomes something worth talking about. That version has had three years and multiple offensive coordinators to show up and hasn’t. The Sam Darnold comparison is the one his supporters will keep reaching for, the overlooked guy who just needed a better situation, and it would be more convincing if Darnold hadn’t completed 62.6% of his passes with the Jets while playing in an actual dumpster fire of a franchise. Richardson’s completion percentage in Indianapolis, a team that drafted him to succeed, is 50.6%. Those aren’t the same problem.

A seventh-round lottery ticket on the physical upside is a defensible NFL decision. A third or fourth-round pick on Anthony Richardson is a front office betting on who he might become, and the NFL charges a brutal tuition for that lesson.

What Comes Next

The Colts made this mess in 2023, and the trade market does not owe them a cleanup fee. Richardson’s real value is a sixth or seventh-round pick and a system that keeps him off the field until it absolutely needs him. The Rams or Packers at that price? Sure, take the swing. Everyone else shopping above Day 3 is about to find out the hard way that draft slots don’t complete passes.

And somewhere, Chris Ballard is hoping somebody bids this thing up past a fifth-rounder before the new league year hits on March 11. He shouldn’t hold his breath.