Yesterday was a big day in the NHL. It was the last day of the old CBA. This is relevant because contract structures have completely changed. As of today, players can no longer sign for eight years, nor can they have extremely front-loaded contracts via the way of signing bonuses. Like always, deadlines spur action and we saw plenty of it yesterday. Those NHL contract extensions also make the Ville Koivunen deal look a lot less bizarre than it did six weeks ago. Pittsburgh locked him in for eight years at a $4 million AAV, and the market is starting to show why Dubas wanted that number before prices climbed even further. We saw Cutter Gauthier finally sign in Anaheim. His contract was only six years long (13.5 AAV) but with the signing bonuses attached to his deal it would not have been a legal contract today. Cutter was always going to get some ridiculous AAV and term, the guy scored 40 last year. However, it’s the other players that signed recently that made me title this blog the way that I did.
Here are some other players, their contracts, and career stats that have signed within the past few days…
Braeden Bowman, RW (VGK), 6 years 3.4 million. GP: 54 Points: 26
Zeev Buium, D (VAN), 8 years 9.38 million. GP: 76 Points 26
Fraser Minten, C (BOS), 7 years 7.2 million. GP: 107 Points 40
Zach Bolduc, RW (MTL), 4 years 4.2 million. GP: 175 Points: 75
Noah Ostlund, C (BUF), 8 years 6.6 million. GP: 68 Points: 27
Justin Sourdif, C (WSH), 8 years 6.35 million. GP: 82 Points: 36
With the exception of Minten and Bolduc all of those players have essentially played one season in the NHL. The highest points per game average is Bowman which is still under a half point per game. All of those players got term, some max term, and they also received significant dollars allocated to them despite middling numbers.
We also saw Drake Batherson and Ryan Leonard receive contracts at max term and over 10 million dollars AAV. Batherson makes sense as he’s a close to point per game player and has been for a few seasons. Leonard on the other hand is an insane contract. The kid in Washington has 46 points in 84 games played and he has now signed a contract worth more every season than Sidney Crosby ever made.
What These NHL Contract Extensions Are Really Buying
Here’s the thing about all of those contracts I have talked about so far, I think they are all good ideas. Giving Leonard over 10 million seems insane, and it might be insane right now. However, they believe he is going to be a building block going forward and if he went unsigned (or on a bridge) in a couple of seasons you might be looking at a 15-million-dollar cap hit. For right now, it seems wild to sign a third liner to that much money but in time it will become a bargain. It’s very similar to when Nathan MacKinnon signed his extension which was worth a little more than 6 million. People thought MacKinnon was overpaid because he recently regressed. Within a few years, he was on hands down the best contract in the NHL. That is exactly what every single team signing these long-term deals for unproven talent are hoping to have happen. Obviously, none of these players will be as good as Nate Dogg but the upward trajectory is what the teams are looking to achieve. Also, with the salary cap exploding I think everyone just needs to get used to some numbers that would have seemed eyepopping even just a year ago. Three to four million is likely the new going rate for a fourth liner. Third liners will get somewhere between five and seven. Second liners might stretch to ten million. Then you get into the first liners who eventually will be making closer to twenty million depending on their level of talent. The numbers are only going to go up, and up, so locking in players to term is smart.
This all leads me back to Ville Koivunen. Kyle Dubas was ahead of the curve. He curiously signed Koivunen to an eight-year contract extension worth four million a season. Everyone lost their minds (except me). I can understand why it seemed insane as he only has 14 points in 47 games. Yet, as I watch more and more of these contracts come in, I think that Dubas did it again. Even if Koivunen flames out he will be a relatively cheap player to stash, waive, or buyout. If Koivunen works the way the Penguins believe he will, he will instantly be one of the better bargains in the league.
I love GM’s, like Dubas, who are understanding of where the cap is going and getting ahead of it. Instead of one day having to pay Koivunen potentially 7-8 million he is shaving it in half while keeping the contract very easy to get out of if necessary.
