I’m locking in my Top 4 player prop picks for this week with two from Kansas City and two from Jacksonville. These are my go-to Underdog and Sleeper plays backed by actual numbers that make sense.

You can grab a free gimme pick and a deposit match when you use my code HMM on either platform.

👉 Click here for Underdog and use code HMM for your deposit match and free pick.
👉 Click here for Sleeper and use code HMM for your deposit match and free pick.

1) Patrick Mahomes — Over 1.5 Passing TDs

Mahomes has 7 passing touchdowns through 4 games which comes out to 1.75 TDs per game. That is already above this line. He threw 4 last week and looks locked back in with his receivers actually catching the ball again.

This is not a hope play. It is math. 1.75 is greater than 1.5. If Mahomes stays steady, this one clears.

Verdict: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

2) Travis Kelce — Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

Kelce has 182 receiving yards in 4 games which averages to 45.5 yards per game. He is still Mahomes’ go-to guy and the main chain mover. He is going to get targets when it matters.

Even if the big plays are not there, the volume is. His routes and target share have not dropped.

Verdict: Over 44.5 receiving yards

3) Travis Etienne — Over 64.5 Rushing Yards

Etienne has 394 rushing yards in 4 games which averages to 98.5 yards per game. He went for 143 yards last week and Jacksonville leans on him when they control the tempo.

The 64.5 line is well below his season average. That is value.

Verdict: Over 64.5 rushing yards

4) Trevor Lawrence — Under 217.5 Passing Yards

Lawrence has 845 passing yards in 4 games which averages to 211.25 per game. That is already under this line. Jacksonville has leaned more on Etienne and the passing game has been inconsistent.

He has been held under 220 yards in three of four games. The matchup favors the defense, not the deep ball.

Verdict: Under 217.5 passing yards

Final Card

• Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing TDs
• Travis Kelce Over 44.5 Receiving Yards
• Travis Etienne Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
• Trevor Lawrence Under 217.5 Passing Yards

I’m running all four on both Underdog and Sleeper this week.
Grab your free gimme pick and deposit match when you use my code HMM below.