This is about the College Football Playoff finally turning into the part you actually argue about, not the part where you politely pretend every seed is equal. As of 2025-12-22, the quarterfinals are set for Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, and the bracket stopped being a conversation starter and became a stress test. I have some College Football Playoff Quarterfinal picks.

The first round did exactly what it was supposed to do. It sent Texas A&M, Oklahoma, James Madison, and Tulane home. That’s not disrespect. That’s bracket hygiene.

Oregon scored 51 and still got nitpicked for how it looked. Alabama went to Oklahoma and won after the internet pre-wrote the eulogy. Miami survived A&M in a game that made you question the concept of forward progress. Ole Miss handled Tulane and ended the “cute” portion of the program pitch deck.

Now we’re into the four quarterfinals, and this is the actual playoff. Ohio State vs Miami in the Cotton Bowl on Wednesday night. Texas Tech vs Oregon at noon on New Year’s Day. Indiana vs Alabama in the Rose Bowl that afternoon. Georgia vs Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl that night. After that, the Cotton winner gets the Sugar winner in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal, and the Orange winner gets the Rose winner in the Peach Bowl semifinal. Then the national title on Jan. 19 in Miami Gardens.

So yeah, Fraud Watch is closed.

The only question left is who can do ugly on purpose

People love pretending the playoff is about “who’s hot.” That’s a regular-season take. The playoff is about who can win when the game feels wrong, the script is dead, and your best stuff isn’t working.

You know this when you watch it. You can feel the moment a team realizes they’re not playing a highlight reel anymore. You can also feel the moment a team decides, cool, we’ll win this with third-and-4 and a punt that flips the field.

That’s what you’re about to get. No more “good for them.” No more moral victories. Every remaining team can play. Now we find out which ones can take a punch and keep their rules.

And that’s why my bracket is going to annoy people, because I’m not picking brands. I’m picking personalities.

Quarterfinal picks: Texas Tech and Alabama are the chaos I actually believe in

Let’s start with the one everybody thinks they already solved.

Texas Tech over Oregon.

This is my Highlights Team Test game, because Oregon can absolutely look like the best team in the country for two quarters. They also had a first-round game where the second half got loose enough to invite the same old doubts right back into the room. That matters now, because the quarterfinal isn’t a vibes contest. It’s a four-quarter audit.

Texas Tech is coming in fresh, with a bye, and with the specific energy that shows up when people keep treating you like a temporary tenant in a nice building. They’re the higher seed, and they’re still getting talked about like they snuck into the VIP line. That’s fuel. New Year’s Day is when that fuel turns into “you’re going to earn everything.”

This is the pick where I’m telling you what I trust: the team that shows up trying to make the other team uncomfortable for four quarters. Give me Tech.

Now the one that’s going to start the comment section.

Alabama over Indiana.

Indiana is the one seed. Indiana is undefeated. Indiana has the Heisman-winning quarterback in Fernando Mendoza. If you’re looking for permission to pick them, you don’t need it. They are real.

I’m still picking Alabama because this is where the playoff starts grading your habits, not your ceiling. Alabama just walked into a hostile road game and won a first-round elimination game. They’ve looked messy at times this season and still keep finding ways to stay alive. That’s not pretty, but it’s useful.

Indiana’s job is to prove they can play disciplined, adult football when the opponent does not blink. Alabama’s job is to turn this into a game Indiana has not lived in yet. I think Alabama succeeds, not because Indiana is fake, but because the playoff doesn’t care how fair you think it is.

One-liner payoff time.

The playoff is where your résumé stops talking and your body starts answering.

Ohio State over Miami, and I don’t think it’s cute.

Miami deserves respect for winning a first-round game that felt like it was played in a phone booth. But that kind of win also tells you what you needed to be. Now you’re playing Ohio State, and Ohio State is built to deny you the weirdness you need.

If Miami needs chaos, Ohio State is the team that shows up with a clipboard and takes the chaos away. They have the “flip the field” ability that turns a close game into a two-score problem in about four minutes. Jeremiah Smith is sitting on 80 catches for 1,086 yards with 12 total touchdowns, and he’s exactly the kind of player January games turn into folklore. I think Ohio State wins comfortably because they can win clean, and Miami needs dirty.

Georgia over Ole Miss, by more than you want if you’re rooting for drama.

Ole Miss did what they were supposed to do in round one. Georgia is the kind of program that treats round one like warmups and treats round two like the real exam. When the bracket gets serious, depth becomes a weapon and the trenches become a language. Georgia speaks it fluently.

Ole Miss can score. Ole Miss can make you sweat. Georgia can make you miserable for 60 minutes and still be calm about it. That’s the difference in this round.

So that’s the quarterfinal slate in my head: Texas Tech, Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia.

Semis: Tech over Bama, Ohio State over Georgia, and then the repeat

Because of the bracket, that puts Texas Tech vs Alabama in the Peach Bowl semifinal, and Ohio State vs Georgia in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal.

Texas Tech vs Alabama is where I’m leaning into the thing nobody wants to admit matters.

Fresh legs.

Alabama is stacking emotional games. They just played a road elimination game. Now they get the one seed with a Heisman quarterback. Then they would get a semifinal against a team that’s been treated like an imposter for a month. That’s a lot of edge to carry, and it’s a lot of snaps.

Texas Tech has been sitting with rest and disrespect. That is the cleanest motivational formula in the sport. I think Tech wins a grimy, grown-up semifinal where everybody complains it wasn’t pretty, and Tech fans do not care because pretty isn’t the assignment.

Now the heavyweight.

Ohio State vs Georgia is the game everybody actually wants, because it feels like the title game happening early. Georgia’s case is simple: line play, depth, and a program that knows what this part of the season feels like. Ohio State’s case is also simple: they’re the defending national champion, they’ve got the same kind of roster, and they have the kind of skill talent that can turn one mistake into seven points before your defense finishes yelling at each other.

I trust Ohio State in a bruiser. I think they survive, and nobody is happy about how it feels while it’s happening.

And if Ohio State survives Georgia, I’m taking them to repeat.

Texas Tech deserves respect if they make it. If Tech gets to the title game, it’s because they’re real up front and they don’t flinch when the game turns into a chore. But if Ohio State beats Georgia, you’re walking into the championship against the most playoff-ready roster left, with the most momentum, and with the confidence that comes from already living in the hardest environment.

So yes. I’m calling it.

Ohio State wins it all. Jeremiah Smith is my playoff MVP pick because January always ends up worshiping the player who can break a game open when both defenses think they finally have control.

Fraud Watch is closed. This is the real playoff now. Drop your bracket in the comments and tell me the one pick you’re willing to defend with your full chest when it goes sideways.

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