Vegas just told me Ohio State is losing three games this season and I’d like somebody to come sit down and explain that one to me.
Nine and a half. That’s the number, and it’s the loudest of the college football win total overs sitting on my board this year. This is a team that went 12-0 last year and held every single regular season opponent to 16 points or less, which nobody had done since the 1975 Florida Gators. They never trailed in the second half one time. Not once, all year. They return a Heisman finalist at quarterback throwing to the best receiver in the sport.
Nine and a half.
Texas Tech has a higher win total than Ohio State. Sit in that one for a second.
The schedule is a monster and Ohio State is still the safest of these college football win total overs
I already hear it. Ryan Day called this schedule a monster himself, they might see six preseason top-25 teams, Indiana’s on there, Texas is on there, Oregon, USC, Michigan. Jeremiah Smith said they’ve got bangers every week and he isn’t lying.
Fine. That’s why the number isn’t 11.5.
And nine and a half means three losses, and this bet only counts regular season games, where Ohio State went 12-0. Ten wins is the floor for this roster, not the ceiling, and the books know it, which is why BetMGM has the over shaded to -185. They aren’t hiding anything! They put up a soft number and then charged you a premium to take the obvious side of it, which is the most honest thing in this entire blog.
But once you catch them doing that, you can’t stop catching them doing it.
Dabo Swinney has the fourth-best win total in his own conference
Clemson’s at 7.5, and exactly three teams in that league have a higher number, with Louisville and SMU sitting a full game up at 8.5 and Miami way out at 10.5. Dabo Swinney, ACC, fourth. That’s where we are.
And Clemson went 7-5 last year in a season the entire sport treated like a house fire, Swinney’s worst record since 2010, and the number’s telling them to have the fire again and win one more game. That’s the bar. Another disaster, plus a W.
The gamble’s real, I’m not pretending otherwise. Cade Klubnik’s gone to the Jets and Dabo didn’t go rent a quarterback, he’s riding with Christopher Vizzina and a true freshman behind him, and if that goes sideways the whole thing goes sideways. But that offense scored 30 points four times last year, the fewest since 2010, and the question in front of them is whether they can do it five times. Five! That’s the ask. I think a roster with this much talent can hang 30 on five different Saturdays.
Oregon State didn’t get better, their opponents got worse
Oregon State went 2-10 and fired Trent Bray in October after starting 0-7, and that’s the entire input this number’s working off. Two and ten, here’s your 4.5, have a nice fall.
Nobody asked why they were 2-10.
Because they didn’t have a conference! Two years of Oregon State and Washington State calling around the country like a couple guys trying to get a pickup game together, taking whatever body would answer the phone. That’s over. They’re in the rebuilt Pac-12 now with Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, Utah State, San Diego State, Texas State and Washington State, so that’s seven league games against people their own size for the first time since 2023.
JaMarcus Shephard came over off Alabama’s staff and I like the hire, but he isn’t even the reason. The schedule’s the reason. Three more wins isn’t a leap when your calendar stops actively trying to kill you.
Oklahoma State didn’t rebuild, they bought North Texas
This is my favorite one on the whole board.
Oklahoma State won one game last year. One! They’ve dropped 20 straight to FBS teams going back two seasons and averaged 14 points a game last year, and the number says 6.5. On its face that looks like a typo nobody caught.
Here’s the thing though. That team doesn’t exist anymore.
And they signed 55 transfers, most in the country per 247Sports, and the roster came back about 75% new. They hired Eric Morris out of North Texas and then went and got his quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who threw for 4,800 yards and 36 touchdowns, and his running back Caleb Hawkins, who ran for 1,400 and 25. North Texas had the number one offense in America last year.
They didn’t rebuild a program, they relocated one. You’re not betting on Oklahoma State going 7-5, you’re betting on North Texas playing home games in Stillwater, and everybody already knows the playbook. Does the defense hold up? I have no idea, that’s a completely fair thing to be scared of. Do you need it to, to get to seven wins in this Big 12?
Vegas thinks $30 million buys you four wins in East Lansing
Michigan State fired Jonathan Smith two years into a seven-year contract and handed Pat Fitzgerald five years and $30 million to coach his first game in three seasons.
And the books looked at all that money and all that noise and set the line at 4.5 with the under favored at -156.
Four wins. Fitzgerald won 110 games at Northwestern, more than double what anybody else in that program’s history managed, and he did it with Northwestern’s roster and Northwestern’s budget. He’s got a Big Ten checkbook now and a quarterback in Alessio Milivojevic who already started the last four games of last season. Five wins gets there. He’ll get five.
And last August the books opened Indiana at 8.5 with the over at even money, and Indiana went 12-0, then 16-0, then won the national championship. Off by four games on a team that never lost. Nobody has this figured out.
So which one of mine blows up in my face? Clemson’s the popular answer and Oklahoma State’s the scary one, but if you’re telling me Ohio State drops three, I want the three. By name. Right now.
