The Dylan Larkin trade rumors just picked up a new team, and everyone’s treating it like a footnote, one more line added to a list, and it isn’t, not even close. Dallas has $10.6 million in cap space, and the guy they’d actually need that room for is Jason Robertson, who’s sitting in salary arbitration right now wanting something close to $14 million a year, or $12, depending which report you trust, either way it’s a number that doesn’t leave room next to an $8.7 million center, something has to give, and once you accept that, Larkin adding Dallas to his list stops being a small update. It’s the first tile in what might be a 5-team pileup, and I’ve been sitting here for an hour going wait, does this actually work, more than once.
Detroit Already Asked, and Got Laughed Off
Before we get into where this actually goes, you need the part that shows how far apart everybody really is. Detroit’s opening ask to Dallas wasn’t Robertson at all, it was Wyatt Johnston, a 23-year-old who just put up 45 goals and 86 points without missing a game in 4 NHL seasons. MLive’s Ansar Khan, who broke the Dallas addition to begin with, reported Dallas shot that down so fast there was “no chance of that happening.” Johnston’s locked up through 2029-30 at $8.4 million, which lines up almost dollar for dollar with what Larkin makes, so on paper it’s the cleanest swap in the league. Dallas wasn’t interested for one second, not when the ask was somebody actually good.
What The Dylan Larkin Trade Actually Costs Pittsburgh
So if it’s not Johnston, the name that keeps showing up in every version of this is Robertson to Pittsburgh, and that rumor has sat out there for weeks without anybody shooting it down, which matters, because Seattle and St. Louis both got vetoed almost instantly when they tried something similar. Pittsburgh Hockey Now has floated a framework where Rakell and Rust both go to Dallas along with first-round picks, and here’s the number that actually stopped me. That package is worth something close to 4 first-round picks total, because both guys would fetch a first-rounder on their own in a normal trade.
Here’s the part that should make you sit up though. Pittsburgh doesn’t even need to do this for cap reasons. They’re sitting on $16.9 million in space already, more than enough to sign Robertson outright with nobody going back the other way. Why send 2 established top-6 wingers at all? Because Dallas has made clear from the jump they want NHL-ready talent, not futures. Rust is 34, signed through 2028 at $5.125 million, zero trade protection, meaning Dubas doesn’t even need his blessing to move him. Rakell’s 33, $5 million through 2027-28, and he does have some real say here, an 8-team no-trade list, so this only happens if he’s actually on board. Pittsburgh’s not paying two vets because the cap forces them to. They’re paying a premium because Dallas can charge one.
Even That Isn’t Dallas’s Whole Ask
And even that framework might not be enough. The Athletic’s Josh Yohe has reported Dallas is also fishing for actual prospects on top of the vets and the picks, specifically Rutger McGroarty and Ben Kindel by name, and Pittsburgh is reportedly very reluctant to include Kindel. So somewhere inside every version of this trade there’s a real staring contest, whether it costs Pittsburgh 2 aging wingers and some picks, or that plus a piece of the actual next core, and that’s the real hangup, not whether Robertson wants to go, whether Dubas blinks on his own kid.
The Version Where Everybody Gets Touched
There’s also a 3-team shape some NHL writers have sketched that connects all of this into one document. Larkin goes from Detroit to Dallas. Robertson comes back to Pittsburgh with a Detroit defense prospect thrown in. Rust goes to Detroit instead of Dallas, along with picks, as part of what the Wings get for losing their captain. I’m not going to hand you the full 9-piece breakdown some of these sites are running with, half that stuff is educated guessing dressed up as a finished trade proposal, but the shape of it is worth sitting with, because it exposes something nobody’s actually said out loud.
Detroit shipping out Larkin’s $8.7 million and getting back Rust’s $5.125 million is Detroit VOLUNTARILY shedding about $3.5 million in commitment, and this is a team that started the summer roughly $2 million under the salary floor… you can’t just get cheaper when the league’s already telling you that you’re too cheap. Wild. Either that version needs another real body coming back to Detroit, or there’s a piece of this nobody’s reported yet, because as sketched, it makes Detroit’s floor problem worse, not better.
And Karlsson’s Just Sitting There This Whole Time
Quick one, because this doesn’t need a bit, it just needs the numbers straight. Karlsson’s in the final year of an 8-year, $92 million deal, $11.5 million AAV, and San Jose is still eating $1.5 million of it every year, so Pittsburgh’s actual charge is $10 million. He’s 36. The defense has fallen off hard from the Norris-winning version of him. Pittsburgh’s already been shopping him to Ottawa, Carolina, and Detroit on his own, completely separate from any of this Robertson stuff. Why isn’t anybody talking about him yet? Because none of it needs Robertson to happen first. It’s just sitting there as its own move, on its own clock, whenever Dubas decides he’s done paying $10 million for the name on the back.
Or None of This Happens, and Robertson Just Goes Home
Here’s the swerve that erases everything above it. There’s a separate, also real version where Dallas skips Pittsburgh completely and sends Robertson straight to Detroit as the literal return for Larkin. No Rust, no Rakell, no Karlsson conversation at all, just a straight challenge trade. Robertson’s family moved to Metro Detroit when he was 10, he actually grew up there, and there’s real belief in the market that it pulls him home.
Except look at what that actually does to Detroit’s group. They lose their number 1 center outright, get nothing back at the position, and take on a winger about to command something like $12 to $14 million a year. At the same time, Alex DeBrincat’s sitting there with 1 year left on his deal at $7.875 million, extension-eligible right now, and The Athletic’s Max Bultman has reported his next number is trending well past $11 million given what Robertson and Leo Carlsson just proved teams will actually pay. Add that up and Detroit’s about to hand 2 wingers a combined $23 to $24 million a year, maybe more. Detroit’s got $29 million in cap space, so the money works fine on paper. What doesn’t work is trading away your best center just to turn around and overpay 2 more guys who play the exact same position as each other.
So take your pick. Pittsburgh mortgages 2 vets and maybe a piece of their actual future for a winger they don’t even need the cap space to sign outright. Detroit ships out its captain and immediately overspends at the one spot it didn’t need fixing. Karlsson quietly walks out a side door while everyone’s staring at Robertson. Or none of it happens, and Larkin’s standing in a Red Wings jersey come training camp anyway, which, given how badly Yzerman needed Dallas to actually work, might be the most likely outcome of all. One team got added to a list, go count how many front offices that actually touched.
