I am not a college basketball expert. I will say that out front. I watch what I can, I follow it when I can, and I put actual thought into this bracket instead of just clicking Duke until they lose. Here are my picks, my upsets, and my champion in March Madness 2026. If I’m right, I’ll be loud about it. If I’m wrong, I’ll find a way to blame the bracket.

The Round 1 Chaos I’m Actually Buying Into

Seven first-round upsets. All of them have a reason behind them.

No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville

South Florida finished 25-8. Louisville finished 23-10. That gap is a lot smaller than the seeding suggests, and 11-6 upsets happen so consistently in this tournament that taking Louisville here feels like the lazy pick. I’m going the other way.

No. 13 Hawaii over No. 4 Arkansas

This is the one that will get me roasted first. Arkansas ran through the SEC Tournament and freshman Darius Acuff Jr. just won SEC Player of the Year. That program is for real. But 13-over-4 upsets happen every single year, and nobody is thinking about Hawaii right now. They went 24-8. They have nothing to lose and no pressure attached to their name. That’s when mid-majors get dangerous.

No. 10 Missouri over No. 7 Miami

Missouri snuck into the field at 20-12. Miami is the higher seed. But this is a 7-10 matchup where either team winning surprises nobody, and I like Missouri’s path here.

No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech

This is the upset I feel best about in the entire field. Akron just became the first program in MAC history to win three straight conference tournament titles. They are 29-5. They are on a 10-game winning streak. They rank 64th nationally in KenPom, the highest mark of any traditional one-bid conference team in the field. Tavari Johnson is averaging 20 points and 5 assists. Shammah Scott knocked down the buzzer-beater to win the MAC title and hits 42% from three on the year. These are not your average 12-seed mid-majors who are just happy to be there.

Texas Tech, meanwhile, lost J.T. Toppin to an ACL tear in February and went 3-3 after that, including a 22-point beatdown by Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament. Christian Anderson slipped on the glass court during that loss and was a question mark until the school cleared him Saturday. He is available, but a short-handed, shaky Texas Tech team running into one of the hottest programs in the country? Akron by double digits would not shock me.

No. 13 Hofstra over No. 4 Alabama

Alabama’s second-leading scorer Aden Holloway was arrested Monday morning on a felony drug charge after more than a pound of marijuana was found at his Tuscaloosa residence. He has been removed from campus and is not expected to play Friday. Holloway averaged 16.8 points per game, shot 44% from three, and that Alabama offense was nearly 10 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court.

Hofstra is making its first tournament appearance since 2001. Their coach is Speedy Claxton, the former NBA point guard who played for Hofstra in the late ’90s. Their CAA Player of the Year Cruz Davis averaged 20.2 points per game this season, 29th in the nation. Hofstra knocked off Pittsburgh and Syracuse on the road this year. Alabama without Holloway is not a four seed anymore, and Nate Oats already admitted he was not happy with the draw before any of this happened.

No. 10 Texas A&M over No. 7 Saint Mary’s

The Aggies operate out of an unconventional offensive system that analysts call the Bucky Ball style. It disrupts scouting, it disrupts game plans, and Saint Mary’s at a 7 is not a lock against anyone playing outside the box. A&M at 21-11 is more dangerous than their number implies.

No. 12 McNeese over No. 5 Vanderbilt

McNeese won their third straight Southland title and, yes, DJ Richards was part of last year’s squad that knocked off Clemson as a 12 seed. They know exactly what they’re doing. The Cowboys lead the entire nation in defensive turnover rate, they press relentlessly, and they turn this into the kind of chaotic, physical track meet that a team like Vanderbilt has no good answer for.

Vanderbilt’s biggest flaw is the glass. They rank outside the top 175 nationally in rebounding margin, and McNeese will body them on the boards all night. Mark Byington has built a real program in Nashville. This is just not their round.

Round 2 Is Where I Go Fully Off the Rails

No. 10 Texas A&M over No. 2 Houston

If Texas A&M knocks off Saint Mary’s, I am riding them straight at Houston. The Cougars lost to Arizona in the Big 12 title game and they have the weight of expectations pressing on them. A team that just shocked a tournament field has nothing to lose and that is the most dangerous thing in March.

No. 7 Kentucky over No. 2 Iowa State

Kentucky went 21-13 and looked shaky down the stretch in the SEC. I do not care. Kentucky has been in this tournament so many times that the pressure barely registers for a program like that. Iowa State is good. They are not beating Kentucky just because the seed says they should.

No. 10 Missouri over No. 2 Purdue

If Missouri beats Miami in Round 1, I am not stopping. Purdue has a long enough history of tournament heartbreak that I don’t feel bad picking against them. Missouri has nothing to lose. That combination is lethal.

No. 7 UCLA over No. 2 UConn

UConn has been to back-to-back national championship games. At some point, a dynasty cools. UCLA is not your average 7 seed. They are a program with real talent and real resources, and I think this is the round where UConn finally feels some friction.

My Sweet 16 Kicker and Why It Matters

No. 7 UCLA over No. 3 Michigan State

UCLA beats Michigan State in the Sweet 16. That gets them to the Elite Eight and sets the stage for a Final Four push. A 7 seed making a deep run in the East is the kind of storyline that breaks every bracket in the country.

The Final Four and the Champion I’ve Had All Along

Duke and Illinois on one side. Michigan and Arizona on the other.

Illinois beats Duke. Arizona beats Michigan. Arizona and Illinois in the championship, and Arizona wins the national title.

Here is why this is not a pick I’m hedging on. Arizona finished 32-2. They swept the Big 12, winning both the regular season and tournament title, beating Houston twice in the process including in a game where their two best big men were in serious foul trouble and they still won by five. Every rotation player who plays 20 or more minutes per game averages at least 9 points. Every single one of them has scored 20 or more in a game this year. You cannot gameplan a weak link when there is no weak link.

Tommy Lloyd has lost in the Sweet 16 three times in his four seasons in Tucson. That number ends in 2026. Arizona is not sneaking up on anyone. They are 32-2 and everyone knows exactly how good they are, and they keep winning anyway. That’s what a champion does.

Arizona has not been to a Final Four since 2001. This is the team that ends the drought.

---