Tomorrow the men’s Olympic hockey tournament will begin. There are plenty of storylines to discuss; Tom Wilson playing with McDavid, Nylander hurt for Sweden, who starts for Canada, and how will the US perform we will discuss most of these topics throughout this blog.

First, I think there is a clear pecking order for these games. Canada, then USA, then Sweden. Everyone who follows hockey would likely agree with that combo and maybe fuss around with the order. The next tier is Finland by themselves, but don’t sleep on the likes of Germany and Czechia. To be honest, I would throw Canada a tier above both the United States and Sweden. As mentioned above Canada looks like they will open the Olympics with Celebrini-McDavid-Wilson as their top line. This is not necessarily the choice I would make but it makes sense. For all his haters, and I am definitely one, Wilson has turned himself into a reliable offensive player so playing him on the top line makes sense. However, I think they have placed him in that spot more so for protection than they have offensive ability. It’s significantly less likely that someone tries to run McDavid to turn momentum if Wilson is out there waiting with bated breath to elbow someone right in the noggin.

The Wilson decision is really whatever to me, I understand it. I find the Celebrini choice way more interesting. Team Canada’s captain is the preeminent winner on this team. The guy who is centering the top-line is allergic to winning, maybe don’t throw the 19 year old with a guy like that. Also, Sidney Crosby loved playing with Macklin in the World Championships, it would make a lot of sense to me to have the kid playing with Sid The Kid… First practice line combo’s are not likely to stick so I’m sure we will see a Celebrini-MacKinnon-Crosby line at some point and when we do, the rest of countries can just give up.

Just this morning, William Nylander missed practice for Sweden. Sweden seems like the most likely team to spoil a potential gold-medal game between Canada/USA, but to do so they need Nylander healthy. Sweden’s forward group is probably a step behind the US and two behind Canada, they can’t afford their best offensive talent to be down with an injury. If Nylander is hurt, look for Rakell/Raymond/Forsberg to be relied upon much more.

The biggest personnel question for any of the big team’s is who will start in net for Team Canada. I find this to be bonkers. There is simply no reason for Jordan Binnington to be the clear-cut starter. Binnington did lead them to gold in the Four Nations and yes, he played great in the finals. However, before that game he was letting in at least one atrocious goal per game. Not only that, but he also hasn’t performed even close to average at the NHL level this season. Logan Thompson is the significantly better goaltender and has been for each of the last two seasons. You can get by playing Switzerland and Netherlands with Binnington in net because you may allow less than 20 shots combined between the two games. The only games Canada needs to concern themselves with is against the USA and Sweden, I wouldn’t want Binnington between the pipes for either game. Canada famously benched Martin Brodeur for Luongo before, those are two future hall of famers, they should have no problem sitting Jordan Binnington who is fringe NHL goaltender at this point.

Side note: Dom Luszczysyn is still a rat nerd, but I liked that graph and his model has finally started to respect the Penguins

Lastly, the USA team is a shitshow. I have such low hopes for this squad. First, they brought locker-room cancer JT Miller. Miller’s last presser before departing the Rangers for Milan was one of the worst clips from any team captain that I have ever seen. Head Coach Mike Sullivan likely lobbied for Trocheck and Miller to be on the team since he coaches them in NY, but it’s looking like Miller will start on the 4th line while Trocheck is a reserve. Two seemingly wasted roster spots while Jason Robertson and Cole Caulfield sit on a beach somewhere. The USA lost to Canda in overtime in the four nations tournament and their Olympic roster has improved by simply adding a healthy Quinn Hughes so it’s not inconceivable to have them winning this tournament. Yet I look at this roster, and it just seems so bereft of scoring compared to Canada that I find it more possible they are playing for Bronze in a couple weeks rather than gold. There is no good reason to have “gritty” guys Miller and Trochek on this roster. Guentzel can penalty kill, so too can the Tkachuk’s, and Eichel, and Matthews. They needed offensive firepower but chose to leave two of their countries biggest scoring threats at home. Another bad decision was naming Matthews captain again…

Just a ridiculous decision. It’s similar to if Canada would have named McDavid as their team captain. You never want your captain to be known for losing. It plagues Edmonton and Toronto in the NHL and may very well doom the USA in the Olympics. My choice would have been one of the Tkachuk’s. Obviously, the Tkachuk’s became overnight stars after the fights in the four nations tournament. You would likely need to pick Matthew because he is coming off back-to-back Stanley Cups and trust me that matters. Some people think winning is not important for these decisions, but I wholeheartedly disagree. Winning is an action, but it is also a feeling. You start losing in a game, you don’t want someone like Auston Matthews or Conor McDavid leading you. All those guys know is losing, they cannot mentally get themselves to a place that makes themselves, or the team, believe. Someone like a Sidney Crosby or a Matthew Tkachuck can look at any scoreboard and have confidence that they will be able to rally the troops and come back to win a hockey game. There’s a reason everyone talks about building a winning culture in this sport, winning breeds more winning.

My official predictions (though I really want Canada/USA in the finals):

Gold- Canada

Silver- Sweden

Bronze- USA