We are mere days away from the conclusion of the Jason Robertson saga. Should Robertson actually make it to arbitration is there a logical pivot for Dubas and the Penguins, and could it actually be a Penguins Thomas Harley trade instead of the two names everybody keeps throwing out?
I think many people would believe the two natural pivots would be Elias Pettersson or Shane Wright, but that’s not where I would necessarily look to go. Pettersson doesn’t seem keen on leaving Vancouver, has a no movement clause, and the Canucks don’t simply want to dump his salary. Wright on the other hand has seemingly expressed, shockingly, that he prefers to go to Vancouver. So, there are hurdles, if not impossibilities, with acquiring either of those players.
I think Shane Wright fits Dubas’ plan, and he would like to acquire him, but Seattle is setting an absurd price for a reclamation project. Dubas won’t be swindled into a bad trade, and he feels perfectly content with standing pat until prices come back down to reasonable levels. I believe that to be the exact reason he hasn’t acquired Jason Robertson yet. As every day passes, and arbitration closes in, the price to acquire Robertson likely decreases. Dallas simply cannot afford whatever the arbiter is going to award Jason, and they would be walking him directly to FA next summer.
However, let’s say Dallas goes the foolish route and lets Robertson make it through arbitration. Regardless of what he is awarded, though it seems certain to be over 14 million after Bedard’s contract, let’s just assume he stays in Dallas.
Robertson in Dallas with a modest award of 14 million dollars would leave Dallas around 4 million dollars over the salary cap. Herein lies the issue, the Stars have no obvious cap dumps. They could jettison Faksa and Steel off of their roster and be cap compliant but now they have really done a number to the team’s depth, all to retain on player for one season. So instead, should Dallas propose a bigger move?
The Penguins Thomas Harley Trade Makes Too Much Sense to Ignore
I believe they should. I believe they almost have to consider moving Harley. We already know that the team was willing to move Harley for Werenski just a month ago so he’s not completely untouchable. Herein lies the perfect Dubas pivot. Pittsburgh media has been incensed at Dubas’ management of the defense, specifically the left side. Well, Thomas Harley is a left side defenseman who is young and locked up to term. He has every single trait that Kyle Dubas would be looking to acquire. The trade package could be relatively similar to the return for Robertson which would be beneficial for Dallas. They could get a young defender to replace Harley’s loss in Brunicke or Pickering. Their offensive depth, which they haven’t been able to address because of Robertson, could also get a boost by acquiring Rust/Rakell and Koivunen/McGroarty. The trade package may need to be more pieces, or picks, but I would honestly doubt it. Not because Harley isn’t worth more, he certainly is, and not because I am over hyping the Penguins players (I understand their value now). It’s because for the sake of this hypothetical, the Stars are not cap compliant due to Robertson and need to shed salary. Sure, the easier route is shedding a few forwards, but Dallas has no intentions of taking a step back, especially if they are keeping Robertson as an own rental of sorts. Therefore, it would certainly behoove them to make an impactful team that can make their team better, or at least comparable to where they are at right now.
The Harley trade thought isn’t as cut and dry as Robertson. Robertson has a lot of control over which team he would be traded to; Harley has no such control. Harley would also draw interest from basically the entire league, and Dubas could once again be outbid. However, I still believe it to be the perfect pivot for Kyle Dubas. While Robertson is nice, I think Harley is more of a team need right now. I wouldn’t turn down the 45 goals that Robertson could provide, and potentially even more playing on Sid’s wing but if the defense turns out to be bad all those goals may not matter. Plus, if the Penguins receive Harley, it will allow them to acquire a cap dump from Anaheim, plus picks, to replenish some goals from whoever was jettisoned from their roster in the trade with Dallas.
While I am certainly not disenfranchised with the Penguins offseason, I do believe moves can still be made. The playbook they used last year worked and they have followed the same script this year. I don’t believe last year was capturing lightning in a bottle, but more so the management staff making well informed bets. The bets this year might not pay off, but I don’t believe them to be bad moves on paper. They have gotten younger, no longer in the top 10 oldest teams, and they’ve done nothing to get worse (except maybe losing Shea). Maybe Dubas can make a big swing for one of the young guns in Dallas, maybe he can’t, but the Penguins should be just fine either way.
