If the Raiders are sitting at No. 1, trading down and passing on Fernando Mendoza is only defensible if you’re getting a ransom that makes the rest of the roster better overnight. Anything less is just another version of the same old Raiders cycle: postpone quarterback, cross your fingers, and act shocked when it blows up.
And no, I’m not signing up for a clean “tank year” just so we can go shopping for a quarterback next spring. That sounds cute on a message board. In a locker room, it turns into rot.
Raiders Trade Down No. 1 Pick: The Real Question Nobody Wants to Answer
Everybody wants the benefits of trading down without paying the price. “We’ll trade back, stockpile picks, build the roster, and then grab a QB next year.” Okay, great. Now tell me the part where you guarantee you’re picking first again, or at least high enough to control your quarterback destiny.
You can’t. That’s why I’m always skeptical when fans start acting like next year’s QB class is sitting on a shelf at Giant Eagle, waiting for you to grab it when you feel like it. Teams fall in love with “the next class” every year. Then the season happens, things get weird, and you end up drafting seventh while someone else walks out with the guy you wanted.
The safest time to solve quarterback is when you’re holding the top pick and you can pick your guy without begging anyone. If your scouts and coaches think Mendoza is a real franchise quarterback, you take him and you stop overthinking it. That’s not being boring, that’s being serious.
Fernando Mendoza: If You Believe, You Draft Him
Here’s my stance. If you believe Mendoza can be that dude, the one who changes Sundays and changes your franchise, you draft him and you start the clock. You do not trade away the cleanest path to a franchise quarterback because the internet convinced you that “building the roster first” is always smarter.
Quarterback is the roster. It’s the accelerator pedal and the steering wheel. You can have a decent line, a decent defense, and a decent run game, and you’re still stuck in the mud if you’re playing QB roulette every September. Raiders fans have lived that movie for years. You know how it ends. It ends with the coach getting fired and everyone pretending the roster “wasn’t ready.”
Now if the Raiders don’t love Mendoza, that’s different. If the building is split and the evaluation says “good prospect, not a franchise guy,” then fine. Trade down. I can live with that. What I can’t live with is passing on him strictly because you want to chase a hypothetical quarterback next year.
That’s not strategy. That’s fear.
What Could the Return Be If the Raiders Trade Out of No. 1?
If you’re trading the top pick in a QB draft, you’re selling water to a man crawling through the desert. That’s why you don’t accept a polite offer. You make them pay until it hurts, and then you ask for a little more.
The blueprint is right there in recent history. When teams move up for quarterbacks at the very top, the package is usually massive. You’re talking about swapping first-round picks, then getting a pile of premium picks on top of it, and at least one future first-rounder is typically the entry fee. Sometimes it’s more than one future first, depending on how far back you’re moving and how badly the other team wants the quarterback.
So if the Raiders are sitting at No. 1 and the phone starts ringing, here’s how I’d frame it in plain English, no fantasy trade calculator nonsense. If you’re moving down only a spot or two, you better be getting a haul that still lets you draft a blue-chip player this year, plus a real extra bite at the apple next year. If you’re moving down four, five, seven spots, then the return needs to be the type of package that gives you multiple starters and the ammo to go get your quarterback later if you have to.
The mistake fans make is thinking the return is “more picks.” More picks can mean a bunch of cute mid-round swings that don’t move the needle. The return has to be premium, because premium is how you change your roster fast. That means an extra first, an extra high second, and then more on top of that. If you’re not getting at least that level of value, you’re not being clever. You’re just getting talked into a discount.
And one more thing. If a team is coming up for Mendoza, the Raiders should be squeezing for players too. Not washed vets. I’m talking about young starters on rookie deals, the kind of guys you’d actually want in your building for the next four years. That’s how you flip a roster quickly without praying your mid-round picks all hit.
The “Draft a QB Next Year” Plan Sounds Good Until You Live It
Here’s what people don’t want to hear. Saying “we’ll draft a QB next year” is not a plan unless you have a way to control the board.
If you trade down and load up on future first-round picks, then yes, you’ve got leverage. You can move up later. You can outbid teams. You can force your way to the top without needing to be the league’s worst team. That’s the smart version of this conversation.
The dumb version is trading down for a couple extra picks, rolling out a shaky quarterback room, and hoping you go 2-15 so everything lines up again. That’s not rebuilding. That’s playing the lottery with your Sundays.
And even if you do stink again, you still don’t control the rest of the league. Somebody else can be worse. Somebody else can lose a quarterback early. Somebody else can decide to punt and rebuild. The NFL is chaos. Betting your future on landing the No. 1 pick twice in a row is how front offices get laughed out of town.
Are You Okay Tanking for a Full Year? I’m Not, and Here’s Why
I’m fine with a tough season if it’s part of building something real. I’m not fine with tanking as a philosophy, because it leaks into everything.
Players don’t tank. Coaches don’t tank. If you ask them to tank, you’re asking them to hurt their careers on purpose. That doesn’t happen. What does happen is worse: guys stop buying in. They protect themselves. They play tight. They stop taking chances. They start thinking about their next team. Your culture turns into a business decision.
Then the next year comes, you draft your new quarterback, and you’re asking a rookie to walk into a building that already learned how to lose. Good luck with that.
The other issue is the fan side. Fans can handle losing if there’s a direction. They’ll show up for a team that hits people, runs the ball, plays defense, and at least looks like it gives a damn. Fans will not tolerate another season that feels like the franchise is drifting. That’s how you lose the heartbeat of the whole thing.
So no, I’m not okay with tanking. I’m okay with rebuilding hard, but you have to compete while you rebuild. That’s the difference.
If You Trade Down and Skip Mendoza, Who’s Your QB This Year?
This is the part nobody wants to talk about, because it’s the part that makes the trade-down crowd uncomfortable.
If you don’t draft a quarterback at No. 1, you’re going into the season with some version of a bridge plan. That usually means one of three things.
You roll with the veteran you already have and hope the offense is good enough to keep you respectable. You sign a mid-tier veteran and sell it as stability. Or you start a young backup and try to convince everyone it’s “development,” when really it’s survival.
None of those options are exciting. All of them are the kind of plans that can turn into a 5-12 season where you’re not good enough to matter and not bad enough to control the next draft. That’s the dead zone. That’s the place teams get stuck for years.
So if the Raiders trade down and skip Mendoza, the quarterback answer has to be paired with a bigger roster plan. If your QB is a bridge, then the rest of the team has to be built to carry him. That means the line has to be real. The run game has to be real. The defense has to be mean. You have to win ugly, because you’re not winning a shootout with a placeholder.
If you can’t build that kind of team, then you’re basically admitting you’re okay wasting a year.
When Trading Down Actually Makes Sense
I’m not against trading down. I’m against trading down for vibes.
Trading down makes sense if the Raiders genuinely don’t buy Mendoza as a franchise quarterback and a desperate team offers a package that sets you up for two drafts. The whole point is to come out of that trade with enough premium ammunition that you can do one of two things: add multiple high-end starters fast, or go up and get your quarterback later without needing to tank.
That means you don’t just accept “extra picks.” You demand premium picks. You demand future flexibility. You demand the kind of return that makes the roster better even if the quarterback plan takes an extra year.
And if you do it, then you better act like a serious organization right after. You better use those picks on foundational football players, not luxury toys. You better invest in protection and physicality. You better build an offense that can function without needing a superhero at quarterback on day one.
Because if you trade down, skip Mendoza, and then spend the next year arguing about quarterback again, you didn’t execute a plan. You just delayed a problem.
My Bottom Line
If the Raiders believe Fernando Mendoza is the guy, draft him. Stop trying to be the smartest person in the room and just solve the biggest problem in football.
If they don’t believe, then trade down, but only if the return is nasty. Not “nice.” Not “fair.” Nasty. The kind of deal where you can look fans in the eye and say, “We didn’t take the quarterback, but we just bought ourselves the ammo to build a real team and still go get one.”
And I’m not tanking on purpose. I’m rebuilding while competing, because you can’t build a winning culture by practicing losing.
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