Super Bowl LX is going to expose the team that can’t live outside its favorite script. New England and Seattle both have a “comfort food” offense they run to when things get tight, and I think Seattle’s defense is built to shove the Patriots into hero ball. That’s where this game flips.

Opening Night on Feb. 2 was the usual parade of smiles and slogans. Everybody’s “built for this,” everybody’s “staying in the moment,” and every microphone gets pointed at the quarterbacks like the other 21 starters are just background actors. But here’s the thing: Super Bowls don’t reward your best plays, they punish your worst habits. And the worst habit in the modern NFL is pretending the game is only about the guy with the cool throws.

The league sells quarterbacks because it’s easy. It’s also lazy. The real swing stuff is protection, patience, and whether your offense can take what’s there without trying to hit a home run every snap. Whoever handles that better on Sunday night is getting confetti.

The Super Bowl LX trap both teams want to set, and who’s more likely to spring it

New England wants this game in a box. They want Seattle in long yardage, no play-action, no run threat, and Sam Darnold standing there having to be perfect. That’s not disrespect. It’s just reality. Darnold has been really good when he’s comfortable and the Seahawks have stayed on schedule, but his numbers drop hard when the defense knows he has to throw and the pocket gets muddy.

Seattle wants the opposite box. They want Drake Maye feeling like he’s got to be Superman because the run game isn’t doing much and the windows aren’t wide open. And that’s why I keep coming back to the same ugly truth: the Seahawks can win this game without stopping Maye. They just need to speed him up.

Maye’s season has been awesome, but the playoff version of the Patriots offense has been a mess. In their last three games, the efficiency has fallen off a cliff, and it’s not because Maye suddenly forgot how to play. It’s because pressure turns their whole offense into a “please, Drake” situation, and that’s exactly what Seattle’s defensive front is designed to create.

Seattle has a pass rush that comes in waves. They don’t need to blitz you into mistakes. They can get home with four, and when that’s true, your offense starts feeling smaller by the minute.

Early-down offense vs third-down survival is the real Super Bowl LX fight

People talk about third down like it’s magic. It’s not magic. It’s a bill you pay for what you did on first and second down.

Seattle’s offense is basically built to avoid the “third-and-8, everybody knows you’re throwing” problem. They run the ball on early downs at a top-10 rate, they live on play-action, and they’re trying to keep Darnold in that sweet spot where he can rip throws without feeling like he’s on a timer. That’s also why the Patriots can’t just play this game like it’s seven-on-seven. If they don’t win early downs, Seattle’s going to keep the entire playbook open.

Here’s the catch, though. Seattle’s run game is boom-or-bust. Kenneth Walker can hit you for a backbreaking chunk, but he hasn’t been a steady “three yards and a cloud of dust” guy all year. That matters because New England’s run defense has been legit, especially on early downs. If the Patriots can force Seattle into late downs with 6+ to go, that’s where the Darnold efficiency drops. That’s where the Patriots get to hunt pressure and force decisions.

Now flip it to the other side. New England’s run game is not the thing I’m betting on here. Seattle’s run defense has been the best in the league by a lot of the smarter grading systems, and the Patriots haven’t been great at getting consistent rushing success. So what does that mean? It means New England’s comfort food isn’t “pound it and control the clock.” Their comfort food is explosives.

And the Patriots have been great at explosives this season. That’s the scary part for Seattle. New England doesn’t need 12-play drives if Maye can hit two or three big shots. The problem is those big shots are also where you get the sacks, the strip-fumbles, and the “what the hell was that throw?” moments when the rush gets there a beat early.

That’s why I think this game is going to feel tight and tense for a long time. Both teams are good. Both teams have real plans. And both teams are trying to steer the other into the exact kind of third downs they hate living in.

If you’re New England, here’s what you cannot do: turn this into hero ball

You cannot make this a “Drake Maye vs the world” game. You can’t.

Maye has been taking sacks at a ridiculous rate in the playoffs. Not regular “oops, the tackle got beat” sacks either. The kind where pressure shows up and the play turns into chaos, and chaos is exactly what Seattle wants. It’s hard to play efficient football when you’re constantly facing second-and-16 because you tried to hold the ball for the perfect shot.

And look, I get why the Patriots lean that way. Maye’s downfield passing has been money all year. When he has time, he’ll put the ball into tight windows and make it look normal. He’s got that “I can fit it” confidence that most quarterbacks don’t have, and it’s a big reason New England even got here.

But that same confidence can get you buried against a defense that wins with discipline. Seattle doesn’t need a pick-six. They’ll take two sacks, a red zone field goal, and a short field off one bad decision. That’s how Super Bowls get won while everyone online is screaming about “aggression.”

So if I’m New England, I’m treating patience like it’s part of the game plan, not something you do when you’re scared. Use Maye’s legs on purpose. Not just scrambling like a fire drill, but actual designed stuff that punishes Seattle for getting upfield. If the Patriots can create some “easy” yards that way, it keeps Maye from feeling like every dropback has to be a highlight.

This is also where the injury stuff matters. You can talk all week about “next man up,” but offensive line continuity is real. If New England is banged up at tackle, that changes what you can call. It changes how long you can hold the ball. And Seattle’s pass rush is not the group you want to test with a shaky edge.

If you’re Seattle, here’s what you must avoid: getting cute with Darnold

Seattle can lose this game by trying to prove something.

Their offense has been good, and Darnold has had some big-time moments, especially when the play-action game is rolling and he’s clean. When he’s protected, he’s played like a top-tier quarterback for stretches. When he’s pressured, he turns into a different guy. That gap is massive, and New England is built to chase it.

So don’t hand the Patriots what they want.

Don’t get bored with the run just because it isn’t popping early. Don’t start calling deep dropback stuff on second-and-10 because you want to “stay aggressive.” The Patriots defense has been peaking lately, and they’ve been good at limiting explosives. If Seattle turns this into a long-yardage dropback contest, you’re basically walking into the part of the movie where the Patriots defense gets to play fast.

The Seahawks’ comfort food is early-down play-action. It’s the “we look like we’re running it, but we’re not” stuff that keeps linebackers stuck in cement for half a second. That’s where Darnold is at his best. That’s also where their receiver group, especially Jaxon Smith-Njigba, becomes a real problem because you can’t just sit in one coverage and hope.

And yes, that also means Seattle can’t cough the ball up. The Patriots offense hasn’t exactly been a machine in January, but if you give Maye short fields, you’re basically donating points. That’s how you end up losing a game you controlled for three quarters.

The one coaching decision that’s getting somebody roasted on Monday

There’s going to be a fourth-and-2 near midfield in the second half. It’s going to happen. And whatever decision gets made, half the internet is going to pretend it was the only obvious choice.

Here’s how I look at it. In this Super Bowl, field position is not a boring side story. It’s the whole thing.

If you’re New England and you go for it from your own 45 just because you want to “trust your quarterback,” you might be gifting Seattle the one thing they love most: a short field where they can stay in their script and lean on the run and play-action. If you’re Seattle and you do the same thing, you might be handing Maye a short field and asking your defense to be perfect again.

There’s a time to be aggressive. There’s also a time to respect the kind of game you’re playing. This feels like a “one mistake can be seven points” Super Bowl. Coaches don’t lose these games because they’re too conservative. They lose them because they let ego call the play.

And yeah, I know, that’s not what the TV shows want to hear. They want the “fearless” clip. They want the quarterback aura moment. That’s not how championships work.

Super Bowl LX prediction: Seattle wins because the Patriots get dragged out of their script first

The easy counter is, “Super Bowls are coin flips, and the better quarterback usually wins.” I’m not pretending quarterback doesn’t matter. It matters a lot. It’s just not the whole game.

Coin flip talk is what people say when they don’t want to admit matchups exist. Matchups are exactly what decide one-game championships.

Here’s the matchup I can’t shake: Seattle’s four-man rush versus New England’s protection, especially in a postseason where Maye has been taking sacks like it’s a bad habit he can’t quit. If Seattle can get pressure without blitzing, Maye is going to feel that “I’ve got to make something happen” itch. That’s hero ball. That’s where bad snaps show up.

On the other side, New England can absolutely make Darnold uncomfortable, but Seattle’s offense is built to avoid the ugly downs if they can stay on schedule. If the Seahawks hit even a couple early-down play-action explosives, it changes how the Patriots have to play coverage. That opens up the run game just enough to keep the whole thing moving.

So my prediction is Seattle in a tight one. Not a blowout. Not some 38-34 track meet. More like a game where it’s one score late, the Patriots get one drive that feels like it has to be perfect, and Seattle finally lands the sack or forces the throw that ends it.

When it gets tight in the fourth, who has an answer that isn’t “please QB, save us”?

---

---