Kyle Dubas has been somewhat busy the past week, re-signing Ville Koivunen and extending Tommy Novak. The Ville Koivunen contract is the one that’s going to make you spit out your coffee.
We go through these signings in chronological order and start with Tommy Novak. Novak floated between third line winger and second line center for most of last season ending with 42 points. Novak was certainly dependable as he was the only Penguin forward to play all 82 games. His play also provided a level of dependability as the coaching staff as they never reduced his role whenever his production was drying up. That level of dependability makes you a worthy piece to a team. If the coaching staff was specifically advocating for Tommy, and it seems like they were, bringing him back was always bound to happen. Dubas locked up Novak to a 3-year extension worth just over 4.5 million per season.
The rising cap is a reoccurring topic for most signings, and their inherent value, this entire offseason. The Novak extension is no different. Signing your long-term third line center for under 5 million is great value for the Penguins. As a matter of fact, Tommy signed the lowest AAV contract for any center who scored over 40 points last season.
Now, Novak just barely cleared 40 points, and he is older, in some cases significantly, than everyone on the above list but it is still a great value signing for the Penguins.
I do have some reservations about the Novak deal though. For starters, Novak is not a 2nd line center as he is much better off being slotted as 3rd line center. He could definitely become the team’s third line center soon though. It all depends on the progression of Ben Kindel. If Kindel can build on last season, and build his frame, then Novak could fit into the roster more appropriately. While Novak won’t kill you on the 2nd line, he likely won’t help you win many playoff series in that spot. Most of this contract truly working out depends upon Kindel, or Dubas finding a more suitable 2nd line center.
The other area of concern with this signing is that it might signal Dubas waiving a white flag of sorts. Novak seemed like a perfect candidate to be moved in a part of a trade for a difference maker. If you are acquiring a center the other team almost always wants a center in return. Novak’s trade value definitely wasn’t high, but he could have been the piece to help fit a trade puzzle. Signing him likely signals the Penguins are no longer worried about trading for another forward at this time. I don’t think a forward trade was necessary but if were one to pop up in the future Novak, with his new contract, is not likely to be a part of the deal.
The Ville Koivunen Contract Is Eight Years For Seven Points
Onto the much more surprising signing. Ladies and gentlemen get ready to know Ville Koivunen for a long time. Yep, Koivunen has signed a max term contract extension with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Now, before I start diving into this let’s just say that Koivunen was always signing with the Penguins he really had no other options unless he was traded so him getting a contract is not surprising.
When I first saw this, I’ll be honest, I audibly said “what the fuck, that’s bizarre”. I have had some time to think about this deal more in depth in the past few hours though. I think this has the ability to be a great signing for Dubas. On the surface, he signed a forward for more years than he had points last season and that’s concerning. Underneath though, there is a strong possibility that the signing works out. Koivunen has dominated the AHL and usually that begins to translate into NHL success. We saw a flash of that success during his first stint in the NHL two seasons ago.
Everything about Koivunen’s underlying metrics suggest he is going to be good in the NHL. He analytics are extremely strong at the NHL level but he has been stifled by a terrible PDO and shooting percentage. I have long said that his shooting percentage is a making of his own creation though because his release wasn’t NHL caliber yet. If Koivunen spent the summer working on his release and getting stronger this contract could become a bargain in no time.
At this point no one knows how Koivunen will pan out. However, no matter how he eventually progresses it shouldn’t be a concern for the Penguins. If he does what Dubas believes he can do, then he’s a top 6 forward on an absolute bargain contract. If his play never matches up with his lower-level success and he fills a bottom 6 role, his contract is right on par. Then if he completely flames out, the contract is incredibly buyout friendly. Even if Dubas chooses to not buy him out in a flame out scenario, in the rising cap environment his contract being stashed in the AHL is really not a burden.
Another interesting cog in the wheel of this contract is Ville’s waiver status. At the start of this season Koivunen was no longer waiver eligible. Not only is he not waiver eligible, but he is also not necessarily expected to make the team. Having a contract at this length, with that many dollars, makes him waiver-proof. Also, credit to me because this was the second thing I said (after saying WTF).
All and all, both these bets could make Dubas look like a genius. They could both be insane bargains. Even if both deals don’t work out the Penguins are completely safe with losing one, or both, of these deals. Once again Dubas is setting himself up for a masterclass on GMing in the NHL.
