Like clockwork, it’s that time of year again where we have the seemingly age old debate: Should the Steelers fire Mike Tomlin? In years past I have always erred on the side of keeping Tomlin, maybe mainly to troll my yinzer friends but at the end of the day I thought he was still a solid coach. I thought the Steelers chances with Tomlin were better than rolling the dice on a new up-and-comer or a failed retread. But I think it’s clear after this so far failed experiment with Aaron Rodgers that wholesale changes need to come to the Steel City and seems like the Pittsburgh faithful would agree. “Fire Tomlin” chants reigned down in Acrisure Stadium last weekend during a 26 – 7 beat down by the Buffalo Bills.

Even after rebounding yesterday, winning a pivotal game against the division rival Baltimore Ravens, rumors are swirling today that the Steelers are open to trading Mike Tomlin. Who knows how true these rumors are, frankly I’m not really sure if any other team would be willing to give up draft capital for the current iteration of Mike Tomlin. Regardless it seems like the Rooney’s may finally be done with Tomlin, but we’ll see what happens after they go 9-8 and get trounced in the first round of the playoffs. 

Old Habits Die Hard

I think Mike Tomlin’s main issue is that he seemingly refuses to adapt to the current NFL. Like it or not, analytics rule the league now, typically teams that are aggressive at the right spots on 4th down win games and the Steelers rank 31st in going for it on 4th down during “go” situations. To add insult to injury, the Steelers lead the league in winning percentage lost per game by kicking in “go” situations on 4th down. Again, these may seem like dumb, cherry picked statistics but I think they at least shed some light on the Mike Tomlins problems in Pittsburgh.

A Lost Identity 

To make matters worse, I think the Steelers have lost their identity. A team that was always known for their hardnose defense and blue collar lunch pail attitude seems to be a thing of the past. Especially after last weekend where they were completely outmatched and out physicalled by the Buffalo Bills. The Bills ran the same zone run play 29 TIMES on Sunday and the Steelers had no answers for it. Their star and leader (and second highest paid defensive player in the NFL) TJ Watt looked completely lost and got bodied multiple times by a rookie 3rd string tight end. This seems like the team has lost its edge, they look lost and unmotivated. Maybe Tomlin has lost the locker room? Maybe not because they bounced back yesterday against the Ravens, but that’s just AFC North football baby.

Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results 

As a self proclaimed failed rebuild survivor I feel the need to warn Steelers fans of what the future could look like. Maybe I’m just a spiteful Jets fan, but in my experience there’s a sense of arrogance and entitlement amongst Steelers fans (although I truly think this has diminished as this season continues). It seems to me that Steelers fans believe a change in Head Coach will solve all their problems and that a new regime will immediately make them a contender and I don’t blame them. This is, rightfully so, a fanbase with a skewed sense of reality. The Steelers have only had 3 head coaches since 1969 (Chuck Knoll, Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin) and each one has won at the highest level, hoisting a Lombardi Trophy. Knoll and Cowher are already Hall of Famers and surely at this rate Mike Tomlin will join them. I understand their perspective, things have always worked out for the Steelers but I think it’s important to remind the fanbase what happens if things don’t work out. Also I think the immediate success of coaches like Ben Johnson and Mike Vrable (who they could’ve hired last year) make the urge to move on from Tomlin even greater. But for every Ben Johnson, there are 5 Urban Meyers so I think it’s important that Steelers fans remember that they are the exception to the rule. The average NFL head coach tenure is 3.2 years, coaching creates culture and instability at the top is a hard cycle to break. One wrong hire can set a team back decades, just ask the Jets. (F*ck you Adam Gase)

How much worse could it get?

I’ve heard the phrase “rock bottom” get thrown around in regards to the current iteration of the black and gold and I’m here to say this is not what rock bottom looks like. The Steelers are currently sitting at 7-6, and are sitting in first in their division (albeit the worst in football). They’ve played high scoring fun games and they’ve shown glimpses of what they could be at their peak. This may be a relative rock bottom for the Steelers, but it’s far from what rock bottom could be. Let’s take a step back and remember the 2008 Detroit Lions or the 2017 Cleveland Browns or any iteration of the New York Jets since 2011 before we start tossing around that phrase. Things may not be great for the Steelers right now, but it can definitely be worse. Maybe it’s about time we start mitigating some expectations.

Here We Go