I had just teed off on the 10th hole, not expecting the Leo Carlsson offer sheet news to blow up my phone until the holiday weekend had passed.. While walking down the fairway my phone began to ring endlessly. When I grabbed my phone, I looked down and saw a completely shocking piece of news. The Philadelphia Flyers signed Leo Carlsson of the Anaheim Ducks to a 5 year 90 million dollar offer sheet. I was flabbergasted. I had mentioned earlier in my round of golf that I didn’t expect much NHL news during the holiday weekend. Earlier in the round, I did mention that there was a ton of smoke around Carlsson signing an offer sheet. However, I didn’t expect it to be of this magnitude. The contract is shocking when you see an 18 million per year salary against the cap. Carlsson certainly isn’t worth that much money, at least not at this moment in time. It can’t be argued that he is undisputably a first line center in the NHL. The only way to acquire him, via offer sheet, was to overpay the player. The salary cap is rising exponentially. The Ducks had a lot of cap space. Yet, this offer sheet was so large that it has really thrown the Ducks into a precarious situation.
The Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet Just Wrecked Anaheim’s Whole Cap Sheet
Despite the Ducks cap situation, it is a relatively difficult contract offer to match. If they were to match, they would leave themselves with 17 million in cap space. That number is actually a hair under 10 million after they got business done resigning Pavel Mintyukov to a five-year extension over 7 million per season. Therein lies the issue that has been laid at their doorstep by Philadelphia. Mintyukov had asked for a trade earlier last season. He was benched, or pushed down the lineup, on several occasions. The Ducks figured to sign him for somewhere in the 3.5-4.5-million-dollar range. Then the offer sheet came through, and it changed the entire game. Suddenly, the Ducks were vulnerable to a dueling offer sheet to Mintyukov. The original contract offer from Anaheim to Mintyukov was not going to cut it because the player knew he could get more from another team. So, the Ducks were forced to significantly overpay a player just to keep their roster from completely falling apart.
The reason the Carlsson decision is still going to be tough to figure out is because the Ducks have a lot of other business to take care of this offseason. Cutter Gauthier, who is not eligible for an offer sheet, is also due an extension. Cutter’s extension, before the offer sheet occurred, was going to come in over 10 million dollars. Even if the player doesn’t adjust his ask, the Ducks would be out of cap space. They would have to jettison players off their roster to keep both Carlsson and Gauthier. They would need to do this because not only would they be over the cap, but they also wouldn’t have a full roster of players. Anaheim did little in free agency, or on the trade market, because they wanted to protect themselves against an offer sheet. This has left their roster depleted. They likely never saw an offer sheet at 18 million a season as a realistic offer. Now, they are in complete flux. Losing Carlsson gives them financial freedom, and picks to acquire an established center, but it’s extremely unlikely they can acquire anyone that is as good as Leo. The offer sheet also likely impacts Gauthier’s ask, as he did score 41 goals last season. What is stopping him from signing for 14 million, hell even 15 million is on the table. It will also have a trickledown effect as next season Anaheim needs to resign Beckett Sennecke. If they retain all of their premier young talent, they will have almost 40% of the rising cap tied up into three forwards. Anaheim might be screwed either way. Complete hellfire hit the NHL, specifically Anaheim, over the weekend. The game has changed. The young players are going to be asking for ridiculous contracts. GMs are going to be more likely to send offer sheets. This move is only going to make the rest of the summer more and more intriguing.
As for the Flyers side of things, I am sure the fans absolutely love the move by GM Briere. I hate the team, that much is known, but I do love GMs utilizing all of the tools at their disposal. This move could be a disaster for them too though. They need to resign Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras, ironically both used to be Ducks. Philly could quickly be up against the cap and need to shed parts off the roster. The team isn’t good enough as currently constructed for Leo Carlsson to make them a true contender and that’s before possibly moving players away to keep their cap sheet clean. Not only would they not be good enough, but they also wouldn’t have a first round pick until 2030 to bring in reinforcements. I still believe that if you have the chance to get a Bonafide top line center, you need to do it. It’s something Philly desperately needed. So, if the cap gets messy at least you know that you are set at one of the most important positions in the sport. It also makes their fat Russian savior, Matvei Michkov, a candidate to get poached. The coaching staff and him don’t see eye to eye. Michkov will be an offer sheet candidate next season too. Historically, when a team sends out an offer sheet, they expose themselves from the same tactic being used against them. If Michkov figures out how to come into camp not grossly out of shape, and has a good season, his contract ask could be much higher than Philadelphia is comfortable signing. The reason that the ask will be so high is because of the contract they themselves issues to Leo Carlsson. So, while it’s fun, and awesome, when a crazy offer sheet gets sent out it can cause problems down the road for both teams involved.
Ultimately, we will know how this thing wraps up by the end of the week. Anaheim needs to come to a decision by July 10th. However, the party is really just beginning. Both teams involved will be altered significantly no matter the direction Leo Carlsson goes. All of the teams not involved will also be dealing with the heightened contract asks. It’s going to keep the entire summer extremely interesting. So many players are still available on the trade market. There are still some notable RFAs, who are offer sheet eligible, waiting for a contract. Even some notable UFAs remain on the market. Typically, the NHL offseason is quiet by this point, but I doubt that will be the case this season. I’ll be following along with all the action through the entire summer and reporting on it whenever something pops up.
