Jason Robertson Trade Rumors Are Holding The Entire NHL Hostage Right Now

It was an unusually quiet weekend in the NHL, but the Jason Robertson trade rumors are about to make up for all of it. Most people thought that the two looming offer sheets were holding up a lot of action. Teams wanted to see specifically how the Carlsson situation would play out before making moves or signings. Yet, Anaheim retained Carlsson on Thursday afternoon and little to nothing has happened since. Sure, Buffalo signed Peyton Krebs and Edmonton signed Colton Dach but that’s about it. There are still plenty of free agents left on the market; Anthony Mantha, Patrick Kane, Patrik Laine, and Eeli Tolvanen just to name a few. They all remain unsigned. We have not heard of any reliable information regarding conflict resolutions for Jason Robertson, Dylan Larkin, Shane Wright, Connor Hellebuyck, or Elias Pettersson. Most NHL offseasons go this way though so we shouldn’t be shocked. There is a huge two rush and then crickets until August. This summer felt, and still feels, different. Teams need to make trades to improve their rosters. Anaheim specifically needs to make trades just to ensure they have enough cap space to sign Cutter Gauthier. Dallas meanwhile almost certainly needs to make a trade. They need to make a trade by July 25th. Deadlines have been cast onto every team with a player who elected salary arbitration.

The thing about deadlines in the NHL is that they always create action. Teams typically do not want to enter arbitration with their players, and most of the time they sign the player right before they are set to enter the court system. I expect nearly every player on that list to receive a new contract before their arb date or be moved to another team. The only player who seems destined to make it into the arbitration hearing, as things currently stand, is Jason Robertson. Dallas has seemingly had no intention of coming off their 12-million-dollar contract and Robertson does not want anything less than 14 million. It’s almost guaranteed that Robertson will be rewarded 14 million, or more, through an arbitration case. Robertson has the ability to use Leo Carlsson’s contract as a comparable and he has out produced Carlsson by a significant margin. Dallas cannot use Rantanen’s contract as a comparable, nor any UFA who signed, because only RFA contracts can be used as comparables during these hearings. This entire situation has Dallas in a true bind. No matter what Robertson is awarded after arbitration it puts Dallas in a horrible situation. For starters, no matter the contract he receives the Stars will not be cap compliant. This will force Dallas to either trade someone off of their roster or utilize the second buyout window that opened for them whenever Robertson elected arbitration. Clearing cap space shouldn’t be too large of an issue, but the length of Robertson’s extension certainly will become troublesome. Through arbitration Robertson will likely get his 14 million, but the contract will only be for one season walking him directly towards unrestricted free agency. All of the teams vying for his services understand this fact, as does Dallas, so trading him might become the more prudent move. The first extension that Robertson signed came with a lot of strife and if this makes it to arbitration the relationship between Robertson and Dallas might become so strained that he opts to leave next July. Dallas cannot afford to lose a player of his caliber for nothing, so they need to come to a conclusion within the next 11 days.

This is where the Penguins come in. The only rumor to not die down or be killed by Robertson is the move to Pittsburgh. His brother, Nick, also has an upcoming arb date (he is likely to be signed beforehand). It’s becoming clear that Pittsburgh is one of the few places that interest Jason if he were to leave Dallas. Dubas isn’t going to overpay for Jason because he can afford to wait a season and sign the player next July without removing any assets from his club. Dallas would be wise to take the package the Penguins may or may not have on the table. If they make a trade with Pittsburgh and don’t receive assets they truly want, they have the ability to flip those assets to Detroit to acquire Dylan Larkin. Larkin fits the winning cycle that Dallas is currently on, and his contract is significantly easier for them to fit into their cap situation. Oh, and Larkin interestingly added Dallas to his list of teams he would approve a trade. Everyone on the outside can see a clear solution for all teams involves, now the team’s need to just act on it. I believe this trade would already be done if Detroit GM Steve Yzerman wasn’t asking for ridiculous packages in a trade for Larkin. He wanted Boldy+ from Minnesota or Wyatt Johnson from Dallas. Larkin is simply not worth that much and Yzerman needs to understand that. Sure, Larkin is their 1C but on most other team’s he is a 2C and Detroit needs to come to grips with that fact. If Yzerman eventually lowers his ask, a three-way trade is the best path forward.

The fun part about all of this is that there is now a clear deadline. Over the next 11 days some sort of action needs to occur. We will be waiting patiently to see how this will all play out.