The NHL may have just experienced its craziest day in recent memory, and if you’ve been following Penguins trade rumors, things are about to get real. About a decade ago we got the famous 1-for-1 deals involving Larsson for Hall and Subban for Weber but yesterday may have been even more explosive. Many pundits have voiced that this would be the summer of player movement in the NHL. The cap was rising giving team’s a surplus of cap, many of those teams feel like they’re close to competing, and the free agent market frankly sucks ass. So, the only way to spend that cap space and better your team is via trade. The wheels really got set in motion on Sunday when Brady Tkachuk was sent to play with his brother Matthew. When Ottawa traded Brady, and acquired the 9th overall selection, it was reported almost immediately that they would be looking to move the top 10 pick they had just acquired. Those reports held true because yesterday afternoon the Senators moved pick number 9 for a great package from San Jose that included Will Eklund.
The 4th of July came early because there were plenty of other fireworks that went off in the NHL yesterday. New Jersey has long been rumored to trade Simon Nemec. Nemec was likely their best young defensemen, but they coddled Luke Hughes to keep his brother happy (or so is speculated). Nemec was routinely shown the press box, or the AHL, for no warranted reason because their blueline was too packed. Obviously, Nemec was not happy about this and was also due a large raise. New Jersey had their hands tied but did well to move him to Calgary for a couple of late 1st round picks.
Not getting into too much analysis on the trades, but both trades felt a little lopsided in one direction. I feel like Ottawa and New Jersey both did really well in their respective situations. Two other teams did really well yesterday; St. Louis and Buffalo. First, St. Louis may have fleeced Washington. Jordan Kyrou was sent to the nation’s capital for quite the trade package. The Blue acquired the 16th overall selection, Connor McMichael, and Milton Gastrin. Now, let me say that I am higher on Kyrou than some other people, but I still feel like this is a huge overpay. Washington could use the speed on the wing, but McMichael is a 50ish point guy in the NHL. Kyrou is a 70ish point guy. Twenty points is a big difference, but McMichael is three years younger and was about to elevate his role (which would lead to more points). Gastin was a high 2nd round pick just last season (37th overall). Gastrin and McMichael should have been enough to get Kyrou, but they also attached the 16th overall selection. St. Louis didn’t get significantly worse through this trade, and they now have 4 picks in the 1st round on Friday (11, 15, 16, and 29) great work by new GM Alex Steen.
Now the real whopper happened late last night. Buffalo, coming off their best season in 15 years, acquired a top 4 selection in the draft. Not only did they acquire a top 4 selection, but they also received a mid 2nd rounder, and a very capable 3rd pairing defender. Oh, and they added about 10 million in cap space. They did all of this by trading Bowen Byram and Jordan Greenway. Greenway was literally a necessary cap dump for Buffalo. Byram was due an extension that Buffalo couldn’t afford after this season. Turning those two assets into this type of trade package is complete larceny. Chicago, the trade partner in this scenario, is the first team to willing trade a top 5 pick since 2008. Byram is a great player, and likely underrated, but this type of trade package is crazy. For one, Chicago needed a winger for Bedard way more than they needed a defender. Secondly, Byram doesn’t suddenly make them a contender in hockey’s best division. Blackhawks GM, Kyle Davidson, was ripped to shreds for this trade by every corner of the hockey world and I completely understand why. While I agree that this trade is a significant overpayment, I don’t think it’s as bad as many are making it out to be. Chicago definitely needed a winger more than Byram, but it’s beginning to look pretty obvious that San Jose is going to choose Stenberg at number 2. That means Chicago was certainly not getting an NHL ready winger, or defensemen, at the 4th pick. Due to these factors, it makes sense for the Blackhawks to go out and acquire an NHL proven talent in Byram. They had been reportedly listening on the 4th pick since the lottery and wanted to make their team better immediately, they did that. They just didn’t make their team that much better. Any defensemen they selected at number 4 wasn’t likely to even play for the team in the next two seasons, so I understand the logic even if it’s a big overpayment.
Where Do Penguins Trade Rumors Stand Right Now?
Those were the big trades that happened yesterday, and plenty more are bound to follow. Which brings me to the title of this blog. The Penguins need to get in on this action. Picks are being tossed around like ping pong balls right now. The Penguins want to move up. Buffalo has no real need for the 4th overall selection, and likely no intention on keeping it. San Jose has the 2nd and 9th pick in the draft and wants to make its roster better because Celebrini is ascending. Several other big-name players, and highly touted picks, are rumored to be available. The Penguins cannot afford to sit idly by and watch everyone else move pieces around the chess board. Bryan Rust and/or Rickard Rakell need to be moved. I love Rust, and to a lesser degree Rakell, but you cannot continue to let this entire team age. While San Jose and Buffalo are likely dangling their picks for a bigger splash (Matthews and Hellebuyck respectively) it doesn’t hurt to call about one of those picks. We all know that Dubas is desperately attempting to trade up in the 1st round. He doesn’t have the volume of picks to achieve that without jettisoning someone from the roster. Don’t trade the youth, trade the established 30 goal scorers on great contracts. Bryan Rust and 20th, plus Owen Pickering and 2nd might just get you the 2nd overall selection in the draft. The Penguins can then go out and select Iver Stenberg, getting themselves their first blue-chip prospect in many many years.
I will provide a couple of caveats though. The prices yesterday were insane, and it left every trade with seemingly a clear winner. The Penguins couldn’t have afforded to make any of those deals. Kyrou for example would have cost; Chinakhov, 22nd overall, and likely McGroarty. The 9th overall selection would have cost the Penguins Kindel plus more. Who even knows what the Penguins equivalent would have been to acquire Byram, but it would have been exorbitant. The Penguins frankly don’t have the assets to pay the prices that were outlined yesterday. They aren’t in a position to be moving their top prospects, or high picks, unless they are getting a top-tier talent in return. For those reasons I am bringing up Rust and Rakell, they are both guys who should have extraordinary value in this market. Their age is the only limiting factor on their potential trade returns. However, given each of them only have two more seasons on their contracts, it shouldn’t hurt their value all that much. Each player is a somewhat consistent 30 goal scorer, can operate well with a superstar talent, and have multi-dimensional games. Oh, and Rust has a Stanley Cup ring. They are clearly the best assets the team has available to them, and they’d be wise to move them. The one move that I have been clamoring about is Jason Robertson. Robertson and the Stars almost certainly destined for a split at this point. Dallas isn’t in a position to acquire picks and prospects, they need players. Rakell is a great starting point for that trade. If you can’t move yourself into the top 4 of the draft, but you can acquire Jason Robertson that would be a hell of a plan B. Either way, the Penguins want to be good next season and I strongly believe the best way to be good, while moving the retool forward, is to move Rickard Rakell and/or Bryan Rust.
